NSF PR 99-39 - May 19, 1999
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Natural Hazards Response Requires New Approach, Study
Says
The cost of natural hazards in the United States has
averaged as much as $1 billion per week since 1989
and is expected to keep rising, according to a new
study released today at the National Press Club in
Washington, D.C.
In some cases, steps taken to reduce the impact of
natural hazards may actually make the situation worse
when more extreme disasters occur, said Dennis Mileti,
who led the study team of 132 experts.
The five-year, $750,000 study -- titled Disasters
by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the
United States -- was funded primarily by the
National Science Foundation's (NSF) Engineering Directorate.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Forest Service
and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also
contributed funding.
The study team was asked to evaluate what is known
about natural hazards and come up with ways to reduce
their social and economic costs. Mileti chairs the
sociology department and directs the Natural Hazards
Research and Applications Information Center at the
University of Colorado at Boulder. He noted that seven
of the 10 most costly U.S. disasters occurred between
1989 and 1994. The states of California, Texas and
Florida experienced the greatest losses from natural
hazards during the study period from 1975 to 1994.
The 1994 Northridge earthquake in California was the
most costly natural disaster in U.S. history, at more
than $25 billion. Japan's 1995 Kobe earthquake was
the world's most expensive disaster, at $100 billion.
"The really big catastrophes are getting larger and
will continue to get larger, partly because of things
we've done in the past to reduce risk," Mileti said.
"For example, building a dam or levee may protect
a community from the small- and medium sized floods
the structures were designed to handle. But additional
development that occurs because of this protection
will mean even greater losses during a big flood that
causes the dam or levee to fail. Many of the accepted
methods for coping with hazards have been based on
the idea that people can use technology to control
nature to make them safe," he added.
The report, published by Joseph Henry Press of Washington,
D.C., urges community leaders to "design future disasters"
for their communities, actually setting the number
of deaths and injuries and dollar losses they are
willing to accept - and take responsibility for -
as the result of the most extreme disasters their
community could face during the next 100 to 200 years.
Mileti said, "We need to change the culture to think
about designing communities for our great grandchildren's
children's children."
Individuals who wish to obtain copies of the report,
Disasters by Design, should contact
the National Academy Press toll free at 1-800-624-6242,
or at www.nap.edu/.
The direct URL for the report is: http://pompeii.nap.edu/bo_book/0309063604/html/1.html#1
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