|
NSF PR 96-36 - June 20, 1996
Media contact: |
Cheryl Dybas |
(703) 306-1070 |
Program contact: |
Jewel Prendeville |
(703) 306-1521 |
This material is available primarily for archival purposes. Telephone
numbers or other contact information may be out of date; please see current
contact information at media
contacts.
NSF Scientist's Computer Model Links Fire and the
Atmosphere
Winds play a critical role in fire spread in tinder-dry
forests, but a fire itself can modify local winds,
helping it grow even more quickly, according to scientist
Terry Clark of the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. NCAR is funded
by the National Science Foundation (NSF).
"Clark has created one of the world's first computer
models to trace the interplay over time between fire
behavior and winds, pointing the way toward future
models that will aid in fire prediction and management,"
said Jewel Prendeville, coordinator of NSF's lower
atmospheric facilities section.
Using supercomputers to model small-scale atmospheric
phenomena, Clark has analyzed severe thunderstorms,
downslope windstorms, and the dynamics near fronts.
For the fire-atmosphere study, one of Clark's atmospheric
models was connected with a model of dry eucalyptus
forest fires (a major threat in Australia). Although
forests vary in how they burn, the findings translate
to a variety of settings.
Most previous studies on fire and wind have assumed
a straightforward relationship between large-scale
winds and fire behavior. However, Clark points out
that forest fires are very complex phenomena. "Interactions
between forest fires and airflow are highly unstable,"
he said.
Among Clark's findings:
- A fire's pattern of growth depends not only
on large-scale winds but on the balance between
those winds and a fire's heat output. If the
winds relative to an advancing fire line are
weak, and the heating is particularly strong,
a fire can force its own circulations, possibly
resulting in unstable, "blow-up" fire conditions.
(It was a sudden blow-up that killed 14 firefighters
near Glenwood Springs, Colorado, in 1994.)
On the other hand, strong winds relative to
the fire line -- though literally fanning
the flames -- tend to produce a more stable
situation in which the fire is less likely
to create its own circulation pattern. Thus,
the fire's spread may be more predictable.
- Air temperatures near a fire are lower than
one might normally think. In the first several
minutes of a new fire, Clark's model shows
surface temperatures soaring, creating a chimney-like
plume of rising air. Shortly thereafter, the
atmosphere establishes a balance between the
updraft (blowing at near-hurricane speeds)
and the heat provided by the fire. The updraft
strengthens and pulls in surrounding cooler
air as a fire's heat output increases. This
keeps air temperatures near the fire in the
range of 60 to 100 degrees Centigrade, even
as the fire itself burns at more than 800
degrees Centigrade.
- The model helps to explain a commonly observed
trait of wind-driven fires: the growth of
fingers of flame, spaced about a mile or more
apart, that form the main fire line. Previous
researchers had proposed that the fingering
was due to variations in either the fire's
fuel or the local geography. However, Clark's
model suggests that, when winds are weak,
a fire line several mile's or more in length
is inherently unstable and very likely to
break up into fingers.
Clark and his colleagues are now investigating a second,
smaller-scale type of fire fingering that occurs through
a process similar to the one that causes supercell
thunderstorms to rotate. Preliminary model results
show the development of a tornado-like vortex within
a fire, much like the vortices often observed in actual
fires.
Note to television editors: B-roll footage is available
from Nita Razo at NCAR Visual Communications, 303-497-8606.
Note to print editors: Photos of forest fire research
are available from Anatta at NCAR Communications,
303-497-8604.
|
|