NSF PR 97-62 - October 10, 1997
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The Sunspots Are Coming
Scientists to Debate Year 2,000
Solar 'Max' Effects on Earth
Atmospheric scientists participating in a workshop
funded in part by the National Science Foundation
(NSF) will debate the effects of so-called "space
weather" on earth's navigation and communication signals
-- two of the major systems affected by an upcoming
"solar max." The workshop will take place in Bethesda,
Maryland, at COMSAT Corporation, from October 22-24,
1997.
Moving through its eleven-year activity cycle, the
sun will be in its most active state around the year
2,000, with manifestations of the "solar max" (better
known as the peak of the sunspot cycle) persisting
through the early years of the next decade.
"Space weather" refers to conditions on the sun, in
the solar wind, and in earth's atmosphere that can
influence the performance and reliability of space-borne
and ground-based technological systems, and can endanger
human life or health. Adverse conditions in the space
environment, say atmospheric scientists, can cause
disruption of satellite operations, communications,
and navigation and electric power distribution grids,
leading to a variety of socioeconomic losses.
The workshop will bring together space-weather modelers,
atmospheric researchers, systems engineers and operators,
and others whose navigation and communication systems
employ signals that propagate through the ionosphere,
the layer of earth's atmosphere above the stratosphere.
As the turn of the millennium nears, emerging human
technologies and a natural cycle that has existed
for eons will converge in unknown ways, according
to NSF's Sunanda Basu and other atmospheric scientists
organizing the workshop.
The human world has changed much since the last solar
'max,' in 1989, explains Basu. No longer does the
potential for global armed conflict dominate technological
development, particularly for applications in navigation
and communications. The Global Positioning System
(GPS), for example, is becoming ubiquitous, and some
of its applications more demanding of accuracy. A
plethora of communication systems is emerging, says
Basu, including many that employ VHF and/or UHF bands
for links via the ionosphere.
Abrupt variations in solar ultraviolet radiation and
in the solar wind that interact with earth's atmosphere
are "space weather" events that strongly perturb the
ionosphere, according to Basu, and result in many
propagation anomalies. "Such events will become increasingly
common and severe as we near the solar-activity maximum
that will occur during the years spanning the turn
of the century."
The workshop will provide two-way interaction between
space weather scientists and the designers and operators
of communication, navigation, and other systems that
depend on radio wave propagation.
Editors: For a workshop registration packet,
contact NorthWest Research Associates, Inc., in Bellevue,
Washington, at: (425) 644-9660, ext. 304.
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