NSF PR 98-87 - December 15, 1998
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New Climate System Model Shows Earth's Surface Temperature
Rising
The earth's mean surface temperature is expected to
rise .2 degree Kelvin (.36 degree Fahrenheit) per
decade over the next four decades, according to a
new modeling study. The study uses a climate system
model (CSM-1) developed at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado.
NCAR's primary sponsor, the National Science Foundation
(NSF), funded the research. Results were derived from
a two-century simulation of earth's climate. Other
results expected by the end of the year include information
on climate changes related to precipitation, cloudiness,
and large-scale run-off.
The CSM-1 is a physical climate model which uses atmosphere
and ocean general-circulation models, a sea-ice model,
and a land-biophysics and simple hydrology model,
explains Cliff Jacobs, NSF program manager for NCAR.
It is one of the few current climate models that maintain
a stable surface climate over hundreds of years without
the need for artificial corrections.
The climate simulations were driven by observed changes
in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations for the period
1870 to 1990 and two projected trace-gas scenarios
for the period 1990 to 2100. The greenhouse gases
included in the model are carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12. Emissions
of sulfur dioxide (SO2) resulting from human activity
are also included, with projected increases over time.
Natural SO2 emissions were assumed to be constant.
SO2 is important because it is converted in the atmosphere
into sulfate aerosol, which reflects some sunlight
back into space and may slow or reverse global warming
trends in certain regions, according to NCAR scientist
Byron Boville.
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