Project Number: 5402-66000-005-01
Project Type: Specific C/A

Start Date: Sep 15, 2003
End Date: Jul 31, 2008

Objective:
Develop new, state-of-the-art risk assessment modules for the iFARM (Integrated Farm And Ranch Management) DSS that address both short-term (i.e., tactical or operational) and long-term (i.e., strategic) economic and environmental risk. Perform site-specific risk modeling studies using the iFARM risk assessment modules in order to assist farmers/ranchers and action agencies with economic and environmental risk management.

Approach:
The iFARM DSS tactical risk component will be designed to manage revenue risk at sale of animals or at harvest time. The gross revenue probability distribution under alternative farm or ranch risk management strategies (e.g., contract or insurance) will be derived and a numerical, discrete-state stochastic simulation model of prices and yields for crop and animal production will be developed. The iFARM-DSS strategic risk component will be divided into economic and environmental risk modules that quantify climatic uncertainties (e.g., precipitation, hail, frost, etc.) and their effects on key environmental (e.g., pesticide leaching, wind and water erosion, nitrate leaching) and economic (e.g., crop yield, gross return) variables. The economic module will incorporate new government programs (e.g., commodity and conservation) into the current iFARM budgeting component, and mean-variance (E-V) and stochastic dominance efficiency criteria techniques will be employed. The environmental module will use standard hydrologic frequency analysis techniques to generate output probability curves. Users will be able to select baseline values for environmental output variables in order to quickly compute non-exceedance probabilities (NEP) or percentages. Finally, alternative risk management strategies for selected crop and livestock production systems will be developed and environmental risk-economic feasibility tradeoffs will be directly compared across management alternatives.

Project Team

Ahuja, Lajpat - Laj Ascough, James Dana Hoag - Professor 970-490-8300

Related National Programs

Rangeland, Pasture, and Forages (205)   Integrated Farming Systems (207)