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Spring Outlook Products
About
The Spring Flood Outlook products are seasonal products issued in February and March which provide forecasts of the flooding expected due to snow melt for river basins within the North Central River Forecast Center area of responsibility.

Spring Flood Categories

Probability of Exceeding Flood Stage
NOAA Winter Outlook 2003-2004 Season
AHPS Products will define the outlook for 2004
  • February 26, 2004 - First Narrative to Weather Forecast Offices
  • February 27, 2004 - Forecast Offices issue Public Forecasts
  • March 11, 2004 - Numerical Outlook to Weather Forecast Offices
  • March 12, 2004 - Forecast Offices issue Public Forecasts
  • March 18, 2004 - Weather Service Headquarters
    NOAA National Briefing


MRCC Percent of Normal Precipitation

MRCC Mean temperature Departure

U.S. Drought Monitor
Climate Summary... Recent rain and snow events that covered a large part of the NCRFC region have resulted in above normal precipitation so far for the first two weeks of March. Much of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, southern Minnesota, northern Illinois, and upper and lower Michigan had at least twice the normal precipitation for the begining of March. Temperatures since March 1st have averaged above normal for the NCRFC region except in North Dakota temperatures averaged around normal or slightly below. (March 11, 2004)


CPC 6 to 10 Day Outlook

CPC 30 day Outlook

CPC 90 Day Outlook
Climate Outlook...The CPC 6 to 10 Day Outlook indicates above normal temperatures in Wisconsin, upper and lower Michigan, northern Indiana, northern Illinois, the northern half of Iowa and the southern half of Minnesota. Above normal precipitation is indicated in the 6 to 10 Day Outlook for most NCRFC region, except much of Iowa is expected to be near normal. (March 11th, 2004)


NCRFC Snow Depth

NOHRSC Snow Info

NCRFC Soil Data
Current snow and soil conditions... Snow depths average 24 to 36 inches across Upper Michigan and 18 to 24 inches in northern Wisconsin. Twelve to eighteen inches of snow are reported across eastern North Dakota to northern Minnesota into northen Wisconsin and in northern lower Michigan. Snow depths are around six inches or less in western North Dakota, central Minnesota, and central Wisconsin. Snow water equivalent amounts are around 6 to 9 inches in upper Michigan. Reports between 3 and 6 inches inches of snow water equivalent are common for much of North Dakota, central Minnesota, and across the northern halves of Wisconsin and lower Michigan. The water content of the snow on ground is san inch or less across southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin.(March 11, 2004)


SPRING 2004 BASIN CONDITIONS

The following is the March 11,2004 summary of the of the current basin conditions in the NCRFC area by the three major drainage areas.

HUDSON BAY DRAINAGE

Souris River Basin
Upstream of Sherwood, ND: Fall 2003 precipitation was well below normal for the Souris River above Sherwood, ND. Fall soil moisture conditions were dry in the Sherwood area to very dry in the Moose Mountain Creek and Long Creek Basins areas. Winter precipitation is above normal in the Sherwood area and slightly below normal in the remainder of the Canadian Souris basin. All tributaries and the mainstem Souris in the upper basin are currently ice covered.

Downstream of Sherwood, ND: The soil moisture at freeze-up was near normal. Winter precipitation is above normal for this reach of the Souris River. All tributaries and the mainstem Souris in the lower basin are currently ice covered. Frost depths in the Des Lacs River Basin are less than one foot due to an early snow cover.

Red River Basin of the North
Early Fall moisture in the Valley averaged below normal. December precipitation averages increased to slightly above normal. Current stream flows are normal to slightly above normal for this time of the year. Most tributaries and the mainstem Red River remain ice covered. Due to little snow cover in early winter, frost depths of 3 to 4 feet are common throughout the basin. Lack of soil moisture has prevented a hard freeze below the top 4-6 inches.

Devils Lake Basin
Fall precipitation averaged normal to slightly above normal over the basin. Soil moisture prior to freeze up was below normal. Upper flowages into Devils Lake continue to be below normal. All inflow streams and Devils Lake are currently ice covered.

GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE

Eastern Wisconsin
Ice continues to remain in place on most of the northern streams. Current frost depths are variable, with reports ranging from 3 to 30 inches. River flows are running above normal due to recent rain and snowmelt. The Fox River at Berlin is currently (March 9) at a level only one-half foot below flood stage.

Upper Peninsula of Michigan
Soil moisture conditions are normal across the area. Accumulated precipitation last summer and fall was nearly 100% of normal. The USGS is ranking flows in the 25%-75% (normal) percentile range. Temperatures went above freezing in early March, but this caused little to no response in the rivers. River ice remains in place. WE Energies continues to drawdown the pools in the Michigamme Basin in preparation for spring runoff. Frost depths vary across region, but snow cover has been sustained all winter.

Lower Michigan All rivers in the southern two-thirds of lower Michigan are ice free. Stream flow in most streams is currently above normal. One to one and a half feet of frost are being reported in the northern portion of lower Michigan. Most streams are currently in recession following the rain/snow event rises of this past weekend.

UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRAINAGE

Mississippi River Tributaries

Minnesota River Basin
The basin continues to experience drier than normal soil conditions. Stream flows in the basin are normal. Many of the tributaries to the mainstem are ice free while the mainstem Minnesota remains ice covered.

Mississippi River Tributaries in Wisconsin
Streamflow conditions are normal to above normal for this time of the year. Frost depth at the beginning of March averaged about two feet over much of the area.

Mississippi River Tributaries in Iowa
Snowmelt due to warm temperatures combined with a rain event the first weekend in March cause many locations to rise to bankful across the state. There is currently no snow cover or river ice.

Illinois River and Rock River Basins
Fall and winter precipitation through the month of February, 2004 was below normal. Fall and winter temperatures through the month of February, 2004 were above normal. Snowmelt and rainfall during the first week of March produced runoff that resulted in below flood stage river conditions. Presently there is no snowcover across the state of Illinois. Mild temperatures during the fall and winter months allowed for above normal evaporation from the soils. Very mild temperatures during the first week of March have warmed the soils within the basin.

Kaskaskia, Big Muddy, Meramec River Basins and the Missouri Tributaries to the Mississippi River
Heavy rains during the last week caused widespread minor flooding in the basins. However, such rains are expected climatologically during this time of the year, and river flows are in the normal range. Soil moisture remains normal for this time of year.

Mississippi River Mainstem

Mississippi River from the Headwater Area to Red Wing, MN
Soil conditions are below normal across the basin. Accumulated precipitation during last summer and fall was about 75% of normal . The headwaters reservoirs were drawn down less than normal this year because lower than normal spring runoff is expected. Frost depths average about two feet in the basin. Current streamflow values are normal.

Mississippi River from Lake City, MN to Lock/Dam 10 at Guttenberg, IA
In the past two weeks, this reach has seen most of the snowpack melt, plus at least one significant rainfall event. However, due to an upper layer of frozen ground, a significant portion of the snowmelt ran off, creating moderate in-bank rises around the first of March, with only a fraction infiltrating and recharging the upper soil layers. The rain event which followed has brought short-term flows to the normal to above normal range, but longterm soil moisture still remains below normal.

Mississippi River from Lock/Dam 11 at Dubuque, IA to Chester, IL
Several locations in this reach are in recession this week after experiencing a minor to moderate within bank rise from last week's rain and snowmelt. Flows are generally near normal for this time of year.
For the Mississippi River reach from Lock/Dam 25 to Chester, IL no to minor flooding is expected from spring snowmelt.

Mainstem Mississippi Ice Summary

Little or no ice is being reported from Lock/Dam One in Minneapolis, MN to St. Louis, MO. Maximum thickness in this reach of the river was 12 to 19 inches in Lake Pepin, just below Red Wing, MN. Refer to MSPRVIMSR for more detailed ice information.

This drop-down menu will allow you to quickly get detailed information for some of the larger rivers in the area. River information on smaller rivers can be retrieved by clicking on the map above.
Graphical Outlooks for Previous Seasons
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