Objectives

The objectives of the hydrologic service program of the National Weather Service are:

1. to mitigate loss of life and property damages caused by floods by providing the nation with timely issuance of river and flood forecasts
2. to conduct the necessary research to implement and improve forecasts and warnings
3. to provide hydrometeorlogical data for broad application to water resource planning, flood plain management and operational programs.

There are two levels to the hydrologic services offered by the NWS. The River Forecast Center (RFC) is staffed by professional hydrologists and hydrometeorlogists who issue river, reservoir and flood forecasts using computer models for predictions. The RFC staff provides forecast guidance to personnel at the NWS For our Offices (WFOs), who in turn issue forecasts, outlooks and related hydrologic information to the media, public and water resource managers.

Mission

NCRFC Mission Statement : Click for multimedia overview. File size is 5 megabytes.
Note: Dean Braatz was the Hydrologist in Charge at the time this presentation was created. Daniel Luna is currently the Hydrologist in Charge at the North Central River Forecast Center.

At the NCRFC, the staff strives to integrate hydrologic modeling with current technology to produce the highest quality forecast products and services for public flood warnings. The highly-motivated, customer-focused staff is dedicated to professionalism, innovation, and fulfilling expectations of other government agencies, private cooperative organizations and the general public.

Functions

The NCRFC provides hydrologic forecasts and services to NWS WFOs, federal and state agencies, and private water resource organizations. These services are provided for sites within the Upper Mississippi River, St. Lawrence River and Hudson Bay drainage areas which encompass a nine state area.

River models (computer programs) are used to simulate the hydrologic conditions and water levels of selected streams (rivers, creeks, etc.), lakes and reservoirs within the NCRFC region. These hydrologic models compute hydrometeorological parameters for approximately 850 river basins, which include about 450 official forecast points. These models use precipitation and temperature data from over 4,000 observation sites and also include Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs), which are predictions of precipitation expected to fall over a specific area within a given time interval. Forecasts of future temperature conditions are also input into the models to determine the type of forecast precipitation and calculate snowmelt runoff from winter snowpacks.

Hydrologic forecasts are determined using the river model data and include forecasts for flood crests, daily stages at selected locations, and long range river stage predictions for navigational interests. Spring Snowmelt Outlooks are prepared during late winter and early spring to identify the potential for spring flooding assuming normal snowmelt conditions.

Flash Flood Guidance is prepared for the NWS WFOs for use in providing short-term flash flood warnings in response to heavy rainfall. Daily Headwater Guidance values are also sent to the WFOs for use in short-fused flood warnings at selected headwater sites. Specialized services include low flow forecasts during dry periods, ice advisories on navigable rivers, and reservoir inflow forecasts for operational decisions in reservoir pool regulation and reservoir releases.

Forecast Area

The NCRFC is responsible for three major drainage areas which collectively cover all of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, and sections of southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan in south-central Canada. A description of each of these drainages follows:

Upper Mississippi River Drainage

The NCRFC forecast area covers all major rivers and streams that drain the Upper Mississippi River Basin from central Minnesota and Wisconsin southward through central and eastern Iowa, Illinois and eastern Missouri. The NCRFC forecast responsiblity for the Mississippi River basin ends at Chester, Illinois.

St. Lawrence River Drainage

The NCRFC forecast region also includes major rivers and streams which flow into Lake Superior, Lake Michigan and eastern Lake Huron and eventually into the St. Lawrence River located between the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. The St. Lawrence River drainage area includes northeastern Minnesota, extreme northern and eastern Wisconsin, the metropolitan area of Chicago, Illinois, and the entire state of Michigan.

Hudson Bay Drainage

Some of the rivers located within the NCRFC area generally flow northward and eventually drain into the Hudson Bay in northeastern Canada. The basins which comprise the Hudson Bay drainage area in the NCRFC region include the Red River of the North, Devils Lake, the Souris River and several streams within the Rainy River basin in northern Minnesota.

River Systems

Within the three major drainages, the NCRFC forecast area includes thirty-two specific river systems and drainage areas. A list of each of these systems follows.

• Upper Mississippi River Drainage

  Minnesota River
  Mississippi River above Red Wing, Minnesota
  Chippewa River
  Wisconsin River
  Iowa Tributaries including the Skunk, Maquoketa and Wapsipinicon Rivers
  Mississippi River from Red Wing, Minnesota to Dubuque, Iowa
  Rock River
  Cedar and Iowa Rivers
  Des Moines River
  Mississippi River from Dubuque, IA to Lock/Dam 19
  Calumet River Basin
  Kankakee, Des Plaines and Fox River Drainages
  Sangamon, Spoon and La Moine River Drainages
  Illinois River
  Meramec River
  Big Muddy and Kaskaskia Rivers
  Northeastern Missouri Tributaries to the Mississippi River
  Mississippi River from Lock/Dam 19 to Chester, IL
  
  

• St. Lawrence River Drainage

  Western Lake Superior Drainage
  Eastern Wisconsin Drainage
  Menominee River Drainage
  Upper Michigan Drainage
  Northern Lower Michigan Drainage
  Saginaw, Muskegon and White Rivers
  Grand River
  Kalamazoo and St, Joseph Rivers
  Southeastern Michigan Streams
  
  

• Hudson Bay Drainage

  Red River of the North Mainstem
  Minnesota Tributaries to the Red River of the North
  North Dakota Tributaries to the Red River of the North
  Devils Lake
  Souris River
  Lake of the Woods Basins / Rainy River Drainage

Office Information

Images around the North Central River Forecast Center

Sundogs on the Winter's Solstice

Water Toss on Christmas Day 2000: Temperature -18 Degrees Fahrenheit