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HOME > Expert Assessments > Hazards Assessment >
Latest Assessment
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Temperature / Wind
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Precipitation
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Soil / Wildfire
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Composite
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Valid Sunday, October 17 - Thursday, October 28, 2004
Summary of Forecasts & Hazards
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SYNOPSIS: At the start of the period the jet stream pattern over North America
will be highly amplified, with a deep upper level trough forecast to be over
the eastern states. This will bring unseasonably cold temperatures to much of
the eastern half of the nation for the first day of the assessment period, with
a reinforcing shot of cold air coming onto the northern Plains by the second
day. As the jet stream flow becomes more west to east later in the priod,
temperatures will moderate over the eastern states but cool over the western
states. Then models indicate that the jet stream flow will amplify again, with
a trough developing over the western states and moving into the middle of the
nation. This will support more stormy weather for the eastern half of the
nation during the middle of the assessment period, but bring some relief to
drought areas of the West. Seasonably stormy weather is indicated for Alaska,
with periods of gale force winds along the Aleutian chain and west and south
coasts.
HAZARDS
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Much below normal temperatures are expected for much of the northern half of
the nation October 17 - 18.
Continued flooding is forecast over portions of Florida and southern Georgia
October 17 - 18.
One or more strong storms typical of the season are likely to bring gales the
Aleutians and parts of the west and south coast of Alaska.
The wildfire risk continues across much of the far Southwest due to dry fuels
and long-term drought.
Long-term drought in the interior West will continue throughout the Assessment
period, with some relief possible, especially in northern and central areas.
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DETAILED SUMMARY
For Sunday October 17 - Tuesday October 19, 2004: Much below normal
temperatures are expected for much of the northern half of the nation, from
the northern High Plains to much of the Middle Atlantic Coast States and New
England, although temperatures should be moderating by Tuesday Oct 19. Some
early season snow is likely in the cold air in the vicinity of the Great Lakes,
with locally heavy totals possible in some locations. Some early season snow
is also possible for northern parts of the North Central States as well as the
northern Rockies. Elsewhere, flooding is expected to continue over portions of
Florida and southern Georgia as the flat land in those areas continues to
slowly drain the water from earlier tropical systems. A stormy period is
anticipated for Alaska, with periods of gale force winds winds expected for
the Aleutians and Alaska's west coast on Oct 17, spreading to include the south
coast and panhandle by Oct 19. Some precipitation is likely in drought areas.
For Wednesday October 20 - Sunday October 24, 2004: A trough is forecast to be
moving into the middle of the nation, bring stormy weather to portions of the
Plains and Mississippi Valley. At this time no hazards are expected, but some
model runs do forecast locally heavy rainfall. The western area of long term
drought is likely to continue through this period, along with continuing
periods of coastal gales in Alaska.
For Monday October 25 - Thursday October 28, 2004: The western area of long
term drought is likely to continue through this period. Although the timing is
uncertain, the latest extended model runs indicate additional strong storms
for Alaska during this period. No other potential hazards can be reliably
identified at this time.
Click here for a discussion of the GFS Ensemble forecasts.
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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices
for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
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www.nws.noaa.gov 
