Conversion to North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and Other Changes, March 2003With the release of the January 2003 data on March 20, 2003, the CES State and area Nonfarm Payroll series underwent a number of changes. The basis for industry classification changed from the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification System (SIC) to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). In addition, the sample redesign was completed for the remaining private sector industries. Based on these two changes, CES has also guaranteed a minimum number of published State and area employment series. This has improved data comparability between states and/or metropolitan areas. Guaranteed published industries not meeting minimum publication criteria are estimated using an econometric technique known as the CES Small domain Model (SDM).NAICS replaces the SIC (Standard Industrial Classification) system. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey began publishing State and area data on a NAICS 2002 basis with the release of January 2003 data on March 20, 2003. SIC-based data is no longer produced or published. Historical time series have been reconstructed as part of the NAICS conversion process. The NAICS-based reconstruction effort covered the All Employees (AE) series only; all other datatypes will have series starting from January 2001. Available now:
Visit the BLS NAICS page for more information about implementing NAICS at BLS. Completion of the CES sample redesign March 20, 2003 also marked the completion of the CES sample redesign phase-in. The redesign converted the CES from a quota-based sample to a probability-based sample. In March 2003, the tranportation and public utilities; finance, insurance, and real estate; retail trade; services industries were converted to the new sample design. All other private sector industries have already been converted. Visit the CES Redesign webpage for further details.Industry Publication Criteria and the Small Domain Model With the simultaneous transition to NAICS and the completion of the CES sample redesign, new estimation and publication structures for Statewide estimates and all the CES metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) needed to be established. A minimum guaranteed publication structure, detailed below, was defined for all States and MSAs. The structure consists of "Expanded Supersectors", which break Manufacturing; Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; and Government into further publication detail. All other published series had to pass a minimum sufficiency test of at least 30 unique unemployment insurance (UI) accounts in its sample, or a minimum universe employment count of 3,000 with at least 50 percent covered by the sample. The series were tested using first quarter 2001 employment data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program (QCEW, or ES-202). Guaranteed industries that did not pass the minimum sufficiency test are estimated using a regression model. The CES Small Domain Model (SDM) is a Weighted Least Squares model with three employment inputs: (1) an estimate based on available CES sample for that series, (2)an ARIMA* projection based on trend from 10 years of historical data, and (3) an estimate "borrowed" from the Statewide series for that industry. In addition to the guaranteed industries, Sectors may also be modeled at the Statewide level. (See below.) About 7 percent of State and area CES series are model-based, accounting for less than 2 percent of total nonfarm employment. *Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average. BLS uses an updated version of the X-12 ARIMA software developed by the Census Bureau to seasonally adjust establishment data; this is also used to derive the historical component of the SDM. For more information, see our technical notes on seasonal adjustment at http://www.bls.gov/ces/cescsa.htm. Guaranteed State and Area Publication Levels Expanded NAICS supersectors and higher level aggregates (Statewide
and MSAs)
NAICS Sector Series
Last Modified Date: October 30, 2003 |
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