National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Implement Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts

Official NOAA Climate Forecasts

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has the task of providing official climate forecasts and monitoring the current climate for the US. These efforts are designed to assist agencies both inside and outside the federal government in coping with such climate related problems as food supply, energy allocation, and water resources. They have an active research program in diagnostic analysis and climate modeling which is supplemented by cooperative research programs with other institutions.

Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts

• Monthly and 3-monthly temperature and precipitation outlook (CPC)
• Seasonal forecasts for temperature and precipitation (CPC)

Sea Surface Temperatures/El Niño Forecasts

• El Niño Advisory (CPC)
• Forecast Forum (CPC) - technical discussion of forecasts from different centers
• Forecast Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, (see also: additional resources) (NCEP/EMC/Climate Modeling Branch)
  

Other

• Great Lakes Hydrology Forecasts

Experimental NOAA Climate Forecasts

In order to improve its official climate forecasts, NOAA is actively involved in researching new forecasting tools and techniques. These methods include new climate models, multiple or "ensemble" climate model runs to look at climate more probabilisticly and different statistical techniques. In addition, research is being conducted on predicting climate statistics other than means (for example, the chance of seasonal climate extremes).

Temperature and Precipitation

• Seasonal Climate Anomalies (NCEP/EMC/Climate Modeling Branch)

  Global rainfall anomalies

  Global surface air temperature anomalies

  US rainfall anomalies

  US surface temperature anomalies

Sea Surface Temperatures/El Niño

• Linear Inverse Modeling Forecast of the Pacific (CDC)
• Linear Inverse Modeling Forecast of the Atlantic (CDC)
• Experimental El Niño Forecast (Scripps/Max Plank)
• Equatorial Pacific SSTA forecasts (Lamont Doherty)
• Pacific SST Model Predictions (COLA)

Other

• Seasonal Climate Anomalies (NCEP/EMC/Climate Modeling Branch)

  Global 200mb height anomalies

  Global 200mb eddy height anomalies

Research/References

• Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin (COLA) [technical]

NOAA programs involved in improving forecasts

• Global ocean atmosphere land system (GOALS)

  GOALS is designed to continue research necessary for continuous improvements of El Niño predictions and to extend predictability of climate fluctuations beyond the tropical Pacific to include the effects of the other tropical oceans, higher latitude oceans, and land surface processes on seasonal-to interannual climate variability, particularly at higher latitudes.

• PanAmerican Climate Studies (PACS)

  A part of the GOALS program. Its emphasis is on understanding and predicting precipitation in the Americas.

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Last updated: Jul 30, 2001