2. RELEVANCE TO THE NATION

Aviation is a critical part of our national infrastructure. As we have seen, aircraft in the United States log millions of flight hours each year. Tens of thousands of people board U.S. air carriers and private aircraft every day. Similar numbers pass through U.S. air space daily. Air superiority is a keystone of our national defense policy.

The dominant concerns of the aviation industry, and of the Federal agencies that support it, are safety and efficiency. As long as aircraft can be flown safely, the industry can continue to prosper. Thus the industry continually seeks new ways to improve an already exceptional safety record.

Weather-related Accidents

The connection between safe and efficient aviation and weather is readily apparent. Weather alone is a significant cause of aircraft accidents and a contributing cause in many accidents with other main causes. Weather is also the single most important cause of delays.

The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) Air Safety Foundation reported that between 1982 and 1993 a total of 5,894 weather-related General Aviation accidents occurred (roughly 27% of all accidents.) These resulted in 1,750 fatalities and an annual loss of $784 million.

During a similar period (1983-1995) the National Transportation Safety Board identified weather as a causative factor in 112 accidents and incidents (33% of the total in commercial aviation) leading to 13 fatalities and 58 serious injuries, loss of 8 aircraft and substantial damage to 34 others. The estimated annual cost of these accidents is $30.5 million. Weather was also cited as a contributing, but not primary, factor in 596 accidents leading to 635 fatalities.

The types of weather conditions cited in these accident reports included thunderstorms, crosswinds, icing, low visibility, microbursts, and whiteouts.

Delays and Diversions

Delays and diversions caused by adverse weather can be extremely costly. Passenger time lost, hotel charges incurred, additional fuel costs, crew change costs, equipment costs, and additional servicing costs ­ all these add up to significant unplanned and unbudgeted expenditures that make flying more expensive, both for the passengers and for the industry. Again, not all diversions can be avoided, but improved traffic management, using weather information as a tool, could do a great deal toward reducing their occurrence and cost.

The types of weather that cause delays and diversions include thunderstorms, snow storms, fog, poor visibility, freezing rain, icing, crosswinds, and en route turbulence.

Military Aviation

Military aircraft are subject to the same factors that can cause accidents and delays in civilian aircraft. However, these factors can be critical for priority missions. A delay or diversion can lead to increased operational costs and additional strain on dwindling resources.

Military aviation also suffers from the added constraint of mission objectives. A weather-related accident, delay, or diversion can not just lead to the failure to deliver materiel to a specific destination, but also the failure to deliver armaments to designated targets. In many cases avoiding hazardous weather may not be an option for a military mission. This places an even higher premium on accurate, timely weather information and predictions, especially when conditions such as poor visibility or adverse wind conditions at a target can dictate the types of armaments used in a mission.

At times, such as during war or contingencies, the military must call upon the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) to meet its need for increased airlift capability. Quality weather support is critical to CRAF mission success and to the nation's success in the rapid deployment of military power on a global scale to protect vital national interests. Providing this support necessitates interoperability between military and civilian weather support systems and a comprehensive worldwide weather support database. Worldwide weather support to the CRAF, if activated, should be seamless. Civilian and military weather agencies must collaborate on cooperative agreements to ensure that the necessary infrastructure is in place and available to provide timely weather support to the CRAF when needed.

National Spending for Aviation Weather

The Federal government already makes a considerable investment in the Aviation Weather System through the funding of day-to-day operations, purchase of new systems, and upgrades to existing systems. The following table illustrates the magnitude of this investment.

Currently, 324 private firms exist which provide independent forecasting and prediction services to all type of industries, including aviation. This trend is also expected to increase.

The Immediate Future

The aviation industry is evolving into the next century. The advent of the Global Positioning System and the gradual extension of free flight is leading to major changes in the nation's Air Traffic System. Free flight, for example, will focus flight planning on finding the most direct (and efficient) route through "good" airspaces. This will greatly increase the demand for accurate knowledge about a larger number of potential routes. The demand for improved aviation weather services can only increase. In fact, the clear identification of weather hazards and operationally favorable winds may be the biggest benefit for a free flight reroute.

In addition, the next century will see a sharp increase in international aviation. More areas of the globe are experiencing expanded commercial service, especially in the longer haul routes to Latin America and the Pacific Rim. The FAA estimates that the number of passenger enplanements to Latin America and the Pacific will double between 1995 and 2007, while enplanements on flights across the Atlantic will increase by 75%. Total passenger miles are expected to nearly double.

Couple these trends with a predicted gradual increase in U.S. General Aviation hours (following a sharp decrease from 1990 to 1995 due to economic factors) and the result is clear: more planes and people in the air, flying longer distances more often. And the more of the globe a single flight spans, the more chance it has to run into hazardous weather. Even though the current aviation accident rate is dropping, the absolute number of accidents is likely to rise.

Farther Out

Advances in aviation will not only lead to more demands on the National Aviation Weather System but will also create new demands. The increased use of supersonic aircraft will mean that weather-related decisions must be made more quickly. Areas of responsibility for air and space weather will eventually merge in relation to aviation. The development of the "Space Plane" will lead to flight through the ionosphere and beyond, requiring much deeper understanding than we currently possess as to how conditions in the region of space surrounding the planet will affect flight operations, and, conversely, how specific routes will impact the ionosphere from an environmental perspective. Actually, this latter need is already apparent as aviation, along with nearly every other sector of society, relies more and more heavily on electronic communications systems, which are strongly affected by magnetic storms, for every facet of operations.

Summary

As the aviation industry grows in many directions, so will the need for improved weather information, quickly and accurately delivered to aviation decision makers who are well-equipped to assess its meaning and make decisions that will directly impact the safety of aircraft. To meet current needs, as well as to prepare for the future, the nation needs a well-crafted, well-coordinated Aviation Weather Program.

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