3. STRATEGIC ELEMENTS

In order to provide a broad framework, the National Aviation Weather Strategic Plan has been separated into four national tasks. Each of these four tasks spans a wide range of topics. Some topics are part of more than one task.

The first two national tasks, improving weather information and improving the ability to use the information, are central to this Strategic Plan and reflect the complementary nature of the roles of the providers (meteorological observers, analysts, forecasters, briefing officers, controllers, commercial providers) and the users (pilots, dispatchers, flight operations personnel, traffic managers, controllers). First, weather information must be collected, processed, analyzed, and disseminated in a manner that rapidly and reliably provides the users with the desired level of information. Second, the decision makers/users must be able to employ this information intelligently to make critical choices based on well-founded knowledge and established procedures.

The third task, forging institutional arrangements, can be looked at as a Plan framework. The appropriate links between participating institutions must be forged in order for the National Aviation Weather System to evolve more efficiently and economically to meet the changing needs of flight operations. No one organization can "go it alone" and expect to accomplish what must be done.

If institutional arrangements are the framework of the Plan, then the fourth task, directing and utilizing research related to aviation weather, is the foundation. Many forms of research, from basic science to application of new and existing technologies, are now and will continue to be necessary to help the nation move toward the goal of zero weather-related accidents. The operational aviation weather community must clearly communicate its requirements to the researchers and continually evaluate emerging research results and adopt new methods that will improve the National Aviation Weather System. On the other hand, the research community should be constantly looking for fruitful new avenues to pursue to meet operational needs.

The description of the strategic elements that are required to carry out these four national tasks forms the remainder of this section. It will become clear that the "boundaries" between tasks are by no means rigid and that much crosstalk will be required to execute them.

Improving Weather Information

Aircraft operate in weather of all types; weather can be exploited for advantage or it can be a safety hazard. Pilots can try to divert around hazards such as thunderstorms, clear-air turbulence, wind shear zones, icing zones, but only if they quickly recognize the phenomenon and its location relative to their aircraft. The necessary information can only be gained by a comprehensive knowledge of the state of the atmosphere in three space dimensions and in time, on scales small enough to resolve the highly localized weather hazards to operations and over areas large enough to take a full flight/mission plan into account. Improving weather information is dependent on ensuring that quality training be received both by the individuals providing the information and by those receiving it. The use of weather simulation technologies would be an improvement to both training programs.

Establishing Requirements: It is clear that the user community has a responsibility to make sure that they indeed know their own requirements and convey them clearly. Users, providers, and researchers must work together continuously to establish, understand, refine, and adjust what the mission requirements are so that providers can deliver products that are tailored to specific functions. Users must focus on their own procedures to determine both what is essential and to whom. They must be prepared not only to pinpoint where in the operational scheme each type and format of information is most valuable, but also to obtain and install the equipment necessary to receive, display, and integrate new products. Users must also focus outward to be sure that their requirements are stated clearly and unambiguously to providers. Agencies need to cooperate to ensure that the user requirements are clearly understood.

One way to ascertain user requirements is to hold periodic User Forums. For example, the 1993 National Aviation Weather Users' Forum established a consensus among pilots and dispatchers of high priority weather information needs. The results can be summarized as follows:

A list such as this serves as an excellent starting point for discussion between users and providers on issues such as timeliness, format, and relevance.

Data Collection: The amount of meteorological data routinely collected is massive, and yet it is not sufficient to build a complete depiction of the instantaneous state of the world-wide atmosphere. While large land areas (North America, Europe, Australia, parts of Asia) are fairly well covered, major portions of the globe (Africa, South America, most of Asia, and all of the oceanic regions) are data sparse. Even in the data-rich areas, it can be exceptionally difficult to accurately identify areas where conditions are hazardous to aircraft operations. Our ability to isolate wind shear zones, clear-air turbulence, icing conditions, and low ceiling/visibility regions is often limited. The National Aviation Weather System must provide the network of dense, relevant observations needed to form an accurate assessment of the state of the atmosphere. This can be accomplished by redefining and perhaps redirecting the role of human observers, establishing more collection sites, adding increasingly more sophisticated ground-based automated observing systems, and integrating evolving satellite-based technology and aircraft-based sensors and reports into the system. Emphasis also needs to be placed on accurate and timely pilot reports (PIREPS) and observations which are specifically aviation-relatedin order to identify phenomena which can be short-lived and localized.

Data Assimilation and Analysis: Although expanding the areal coverage and types of observations should lead to improved analysis of the state of the atmosphere, careful consideration must be given to how these data are utilized. New sources of familiar data, such as new and increasingly more common aircraft-based sensors, will expand the types and amounts of data entering the analysis stream. New approaches to data acquisition, such as the ingesting of satellite-based atmospheric sounders, and even totally new observational parameters represent significant challenges to analysis. And yet all of these data need to be rapidly assimilated into analysis procedures, and those procedures need to be tailored to meet the deadlines, format, and resolution of localized aviation needs. This will require careful assessment of how best to use new data, how to make it useful for both local and regional analyses, and what specific conditions to analyze for. Considerable interaction will be required among the provider community, after consideration of users needs, in order to accomplish this goal.

Forecasting: If the assimilation and analysis aspect of the National Aviation Weather System provides the accurate depiction of the state of the atmosphere for the aviation community, then the forecasting aspect uses that depiction to inform the user of what is likely to happen in the near future. While a knowledge of the here-and-now weather is vital for immediate aircraft operations, a foreknowledge of the when-and-where is also required for continued safe operation, especially as longer commercial routes open up. The National Aviation Weather System must provide the best possible projection of aviation impact variables over time periods and space scales of interest. This will require ensuring that all available observations are routinely provided to the national forecast centers (civilian and military) and assuring that the observations meet minimum standards for resolution, timeliness, and format. It will also require that forecasters be more highly trained. In addition, emphasis must be placed on identifying the levels of forecast accuracy required by specific users for specific operational decisions, determining whether or not these needs are currently being met, and assembling the combination of resources and effort that would be needed to eliminate deficiencies. Special attention must be paid to remote regions where aircraft operate routinely.

Dissemination: Raw data must be entered into the assimilation, analysis, and prediction stream as quickly and efficiently as possible. Finished products must be provided to all end users rapidly enough to be of use. A parity of information must be attained; products derived from a common information base must be tailored to the needs of end users and delivered where they need it. The flow of information in the data/product pipeline must move with maximum efficiency to meet the goals of the aviation weather program. To accomplish this, new techniques of moving data into the stream, using enhanced technologies and greater communications capacities must be developed. At the same time, on the outgoing end of the stream, care must be taken that the pipeline is not clogged with unnecessary data, but that users get the products and information they need to make their decisions in a timely manner. Multiple, varied systems will be required for sending information, rather than taking a "one size fits all" approach, since receiving platforms are not likely to be equipped uniformly. Some users may need specific packets of information sent to them, others may be able to intelligently query the weather database for specific needs. Attention must be paid to surface-to-surface, surface-to-air, and even satellite-to-air communications paths. Once again, agencies will need to cooperate to bring this to fruition.

Tailoring: It is clear that operational decision makers need to have access to the information they need to know about the atmosphere, but do not need to be burdened with sorting through all available information to find the relevant pieces. A diligent effort is needed to bring together users and providers ­ conducting decision-making research and simulation, as well as operational testing. That is, the National Aviation Weather System must strive to deliver what is required to whomever needs it when it is required. Providers must understand user needs at all stages of flight operations, since "what is required" will vary as a mission progresses from pre-flight preparation to in-flight operation to mission objective to touch down. Indeed, requirements are most likely to be airframe-specific, mission-specific, and destination-specific. Once this understanding of specific user requirements is gained, providers can then work to fill those needs from available information.

Product Presentation: Simply handing information to the user is not sufficient in the aviation context, where tasks are complex and distractions are constant. The format the information takes must also be tailored to the situation so that the receiver recognizes that the incoming product is of value. In some instances, graphic products are called for; in others, textual products; in still others, audible messages may be the best way to convey information quickly and accurately. The National Aviation Weather System must provide users with products that inform them in easily recognizable form of current and changing weather conditions, with special emphasis on present or emerging hazards. This will require careful planning and coordination between providers and users, access to and application of evolving graphic display capabilities, improvement of communications capabilities to ensure that required products can be reliably transmitted, understanding of the work patterns of the various types of users to determine the most suitable media for conveying information, and understanding of human factors in information perception to develop standardized depictions of the various aspects of the weather products.

Using Weather Information More Effectively

Getting concise, accurate, timely, and relevant information to the end users is only part of what must be done to allow operational personnel to make sound decisions. Operational personnel must also be able to draw on adequate background knowledge to make those decisions in an informed manner. They must know how to interpret the products they receive. They must understand the importance of the information. They must know how it relates to flight safety. They must have well-established procedures for implementing their decisions.

Requirements: The requirements development process takes on a different perspective when it comes to utilization. In this case the focus is on the use and application of aviation weather products and services. When considering requirements in terms of utilization it is a question of how the tools should be applied and what procedures and rules need to be established for their use. It becomes more than just a matter of providing a particular service or product ­ it also includes procedure development, rule making, and training. The objective of the process, for both users and providers, is to develop procedures and training that assure that users are able to obtain the maximum possible advantage from a new aviation weather product or service.

The cooperative aspect of developing requirements becomes particularly important in this case. The understanding of user needs is critical, but the perspective is somewhat different. It is absolutely essential that the providers understand not only the users' requirements but also the environment they face. Providers need to be able to write procedures, training curricula, and rules that are both practical and optimal in the users' operating arena.

Developing utilization requirements cannot be done by any one single agency ­ it has to be a cooperative undertaking. Specific organizations, including the FAA and the Department of Defense, are charged with developing procedures and rules for use in managing the Air Traffic System, but they cannot and should not do this alone. The developers of aviation weather products need to be involved, as do the users of the products. This philosophy recognizes that the requirements process does not end at a specific point. No demarcation point exists that says "this is where the requirements process ends and the development process begins." That would be neither efficient nor logical. The requirements process is a continual back-and-forth exchange of information and views that links users and developers at all stages in the path to bringing a new product or service into the National Aviation Weather System.

The requirements development process, to be efficient and effective, must be iterative. It must include the entire aviation community ­ weather professionals, controllers, dispatchers, pilots, and system managers (usually the ones charged with writing the procedures) ­ and it must contain provision for continual feedback, since it is vital that users get the most out of these services. The aviation weather community must and will develop a cooperative and highly linked requirements development process. ATC professionals, users, and developers from every field will be asked for input, comment, and feedback. This process must occur through a continuing series of user forums, special user/provider focus groups, and public comment.

Training and Education: All aircraft operations personnel need to undergo regular training in order to do their jobs safely as the industry changes. Specific programs for weather-related safety training must be developed, especially for the general aviation community. Pilot training at all levels in both civilian and military aviation must include weather as a requisite area of knowledge. Agencies must cooperate amongst themselves and with pilot organizations from all classes of aviation to reach the broadest possible civilian pilot base. Tailored training for controllers, dispatchers, and traffic management personnel must emphasize the importance of weather hazards and explain the uses of improved products.

Simulations: The aviation industry, perhaps more than any other sector of society, relies on simulations for operational training.Commercial and military pilots are required to put in time in large scale simulators, and general aviation pilots are encouraged to do so. Simulator experience is a key part of pilot training, since it allows a pilot to gain familiarity with a situation in a controlled environment, before he or she actually encounters it in the air. Aviation weather information must be integrated into simulations, not only to demonstrate realisticconditions, but also to acquaint pilots with the scope and intensity of aviation hazards.In addition, simulations with embedded enhanced weather products could be adapted to understand pilot operational decision-making. To accomplish this across the board, agencies must work with simulator designers to include increasingly accurate weather scenarios. Also, easily portable simulators must be developed for the General Aviation community.

Safety Programs: Concurrent with the need for procedural training related to weather is the need for aviation weather safety programs. Personnel involved in making aviation safety decisions must understand why and how weather can be not only an operational obstacle but also a major hazard to flight safety. The comments made in the training and education section apply here also. All agencies and organizations involved in aircraft safety need to cooperate to ensure that safety training is done routinely, not as a special event.

Mishap Investigation: Investigators responsible for establishing the causes of aviation accidents need reliable weather information and the knowledge to assess how it may have contributed to the incident. The results of investigations can be used to plan safety training programs and also, quite possibly, to highlight deficiencies in the data, the analysis, the forecast, the information products being generated, or in the interpretation of the products by operators.

Forging Institutional Arrangements

Aviation is a factor throughout our society. Thus the responsibility for weather-related aviation safety cuts across a wide swath of the Federal government. Each agency has responsibility for a different aspect of the aviation arena; no one agency has overall authority. The Departments of Transportation (Federal Aviation Administration/FAA), Commerce (National Weather Service/NWS), Defense (Air Force, Army, Navy, Marine Corps), and Agriculture (Forest Service) all have an active role to play, as do the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA.) All agencies have a vital interest in aviation safety. The OFCM plays a key role by providing a mechanism for interagency coordination and cooperation in aviation weather services.

Interorganizational coordination: Because aviation impacts so many sectors of society, cooperation among the various Federal agencies involved is crucial. Such cooperation is already a significant factor in the present aviation weather structure. The well-established interactions among Center Weather Service Units (NWS), Weather Forecast Offices (NWS), and the Air Route Traffic Control Centers (FAA) in providing aviation weather services to aviators and the aviation industry is a fundamental example of such institutional arrangements. A similar example is seen in the coordination among the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NWS), the U.S. Air Force Global Weather Center (DoD), and the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (DoD) to share data for mesoscale and global forecast models.

The point is that such arrangements must be expanded. Data must be shared. Large-scale systems must be made interoperable. Analysis tools and techniques must be jointly developed and tested. Where requirements are identical, redundancy can be eliminated. Where deficiencies exist, mutual cooperation can be brought to bear. Where special requirements are needed, they should be met. The National Aviation Weather System needs to be highly integrated to operate efficiently across multiple agencies. Agencies must become cognizant of each other's needs and strengths and work to integrate these into a cohesive system.

Program Monitoring and Oversight: Since so many organizations have aviation-related responsibilities, the task of monitoring the functioning of the National Aviation Weather System will need to be a coordinated effort also. A forum is needed for establishing current and evolving requirements of the System, recommending agency and non-governmental responsibilities, identifying and building on successes, correcting inadequacies, and maintaining the cross-agency and external liaisons so vital to the System. The National Aviation Weather Program Council is the forum, since it already represents the full spectrum of federal aviation weather interests. However, the oversight forum should be expanded to include industry, private, and academic interests in order to take full advantage of the wide range of aviation experience in the U.S.

Non-Federal Aviation Weather Systems: Although the Federal government has the dominant role in aviation weather, state and local governments and private concerns also own and operate airports and provide weather services. Users need to be confident that weather information obtained from any source is reliable and consistent, though not necessarily identical, across the entire spectrum of providers. To take advantage of non-Federal capabilities, as well as to ensure that all providers attain a minimum standard of proficiency, the National Aviation Weather System needs to attain the optimum integration of non-Federal systems into the evolving National System. This will require close coordination with state, local, and private providers to develop joint standards for information and to identify areas where non-Federal providers can be more effectively used to enlarge the scope and accuracy of aviation weather information.

International Coordination: Aviation is a truly international undertaking. United States aircraft fly in foreign airspace; foreign aircraft fly in U.S. air space. For this reason, the U.S. government has agreed to conform as much as possible to standards set by international agencies such as ICAO and WMO. The goal of the National Aviation Weather System should be to provide high quality, seamless aviation weather information in the international environment. Federal agencies need to take a leadership role in establishing international standards for aviation weather information, encouraging other nations' investments in improving and expanding their systems, ensuring that data and research are shared among participating nations, and recommending that they extend observational capabilities into remote regions of the world.

Establishing Requirements: It is important to realize that the relationship between providers and users is both interactive and evolutionary. Users may not know all of their requirements until they see new directions in capability offered by providers. Likewise, providers may not know what new directions of weather capability would be of value until the users tell them. By conducting operational testing of capabilities in concert with users, providers can make their products more effective. In addition, open-systems architecture and commercial off-the-shelf systems will allow evolutionary products to enter the operational system with greater speed and effectiveness. Conducting such testing and establishing such architectures can only be accomplished through interagency cooperation.

Standardization: If the necessary synergies across sectors of the aviation communities are to occur, the various participants must "speak the same language." Performance and accuracy standards for equipment and weather information need to be established. Common user databases need to be established. Integrated system architectures that dovetail with other, related systems must be developed. Aviation agencies need to take the lead in establishing these standards based on an in-depth understanding of requirements and capabilities in all sectors of aviation. This effort must not, however, preclude development of specialized systems to deal with unique needs.

Resource Leveraging: The implementation of this Strategic Plan strategy must take advantage of institutional leverage across agencies in order to make the most efficient use of equipment, personnel, and research/development capital. Single-application approaches must not be pursued

unless absolutely unavoidable. Each agency must draw on its own strengths, while tapping into those of other agencies to attain the Plan goals in the most direct, efficient, and cost-conserving manner. The National Aviation Weather System must maintain an environment that emphasizes the free flow of data, information, and research among the organizations involved, public and private. Areas that will benefit from information exchange need to be identified across all agencies. An oversight panel is needed to ensure joint development of programs and to initiate cooperative programs.

Systems Acquisition: The network of cooperative agreements, shared requirements, and agreed-upon standards outlined in this Strategic Plan leads naturally to a system acquisition process that takes into account both common and unique objectives. Specifications must be jointly developed; multi-agency needs and interests must be served; development and acquisition capital must be leveraged to better meet user requirements at lower cost. Alternative (user-based) funding sources must be actively encouraged.

Training and Education Programs: The people involved in aviation weather need to receive training which helps them function effectively without requiring expert-level understanding. Those who generate products do not need to know how to fly an airplane but do need to know what weather-related information a pilot needs to fly safely. Pilots do not need a detailed understanding of meteorology, but must know what weather products tell them about mission and flight operations. A well-crafted, effective education and training program is the key to achieving this Strategic Plan's goals, since the responsibility for safety ultimately hinges on the performance of individuals. As the understanding of requirements and standards evolves, the development of training and education plans for both providers and users must be refined and targeted. Programs directed toward general aviation users must be developed, as must programs specifically geared to controllers and dispatchers. A portable and realistic weather training simulation system should be developed.Cooperation among agencies is especially important because no one agency has responsibility for aviation weather training. Indeed, none of the agencies involved really has general aviation training as part of its charter, and yet the need must be met if the goal of increased aviation safety is to be attained.

Safety Programs: Weather safety programs aimed at all strata of the aviation community must also be developed and geared to the users' specific requirements. The users of aviation weather information ­ pilots, dispatchers, controllers, operations personnel, designers, mission planners ­ not only need to be able to understand the products but must be able to assess the impact of that information on safe performance of their duties. Strong, comprehensive aviation weather safety components must be built into safety programs aimed at all sectors of aviation.Aviation agencies must develop liaison with aircraft certification offices to ensure that weather information is considered in every step of the certification process. Weather training must be fully integrated into the FAA pilot training and certification requirements. Training programs in the Department of Defense must emphasize weather-related training as well.

Contingency/Special Operations: Not all aircraft operations are "routine." Special circumstances such as research related operations, forest fire fighting, large air shows, and major military operations, may have higher-than-normal weather-related risks associated with them. These risks may be restricted to the personnel involved in the operations, but may have an impact on the wider community. The implementation of this Strategic Plan must build in the flexibility to bring resources to bear in order to deal with non-routine aviation operations without excessive impact to routine operations. Each agency's requirements and responsibilities need to be clearly defined and coordinated. Mobile observing equipment should be developed to provide at-the-scene observations and analysis tools. DoD and non-DoD equipment should be interoperable to the greatest extent possible.

Directing and Utilizing Research

Research is a key factor in the successful implementation of the National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan. Advances in knowledge and technology are vital to greater understanding of both the impact of weather conditions on flight safety and the methods for identifying hazardous conditions and either avoiding or alleviating them.

Many Federal agencies fund basic and applied research in disciplines related to aviation weather. Not all of that research has immediate, direct bearing on flight safety or efficiency. The agencies involved in the National Aviation Weather System must actively work to identify areas of study that will lead to enhancements in weather-related safety. Some current examples of on-going research can serve to highlight the types of studies that should prove fruitful.

The FAA currently supports research efforts into the measurement and forecasting of specific aviation impact variables, including:

• in-flight icing
• airborne relative humidity sensors
• turbulence (other than convective)
• convective weather
• ceiling and visibility
• wind shear.

The NWS is actively involved in aviation weather research in project areas such as turbulence, icing, and volcanic ash.

In addition, the USAF, FAA, and NWS support research that will improve observations, data bases, products, and dissemination techniques. Examples are:

• WSR-88D (NEXRAD) algorithm enhancements
• weather support for ground de-icing decision making
• weather data links directly to aircraft
• user accessible and manipulable 4-D weather databases
• high resolution graphics products
• high-resolution short-term aviation terminal and en route forecasts.

NASA's research programs focus on operational areas which will have aviation-weather implications. Specific areas of study include:

• development of cockpit displays to integrate national radar summaries, lightning strikes, surface observations, and terminal area forecasts
• expansion of these displays with additional information concerning turbulence and icing
• introducing a hazard avoidance system into cockpit displays along with enhanced strategic flight planning tools
• developing systems to provide real-time aircraft wake vortex data to Center Traffic Controllers
• developing improved "ice resistant" aircraft design techniques through analytical tool development and icing wind tunnel tests
• developing ice detection systems, icing avoidance cockpit displays, and ice protection and avoidance techniques for General Aviation aircraft
• space-based measurement of atmospheric parameters, such as temperature and moisture, that gradually improves the accuracy of atmospheric modeling and the ability to accurately predict weather.

All of the agencies involved in aviation weather engage in collaborative research with universities and with laboratories such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET). Additional efforts need to be made in the retrieval and archiving of historical weather data, especially in areas with minimal observational coverage. Often, the forecaster must rely on historical trends in those areas to make intelligent predictions of future conditions.

While this list is by no means exhaustive, it does serve to indicate areas of high-potential research. The National Aviation Weather System must first identify aviation weather-specific research programs that show promise of direct impact on the goal of significantly improved weather-related flight safety and then take steps to ensure that research into these areas is given a high priority for funding. Strong emphasis must be placed on the movement of capabilities out of basic research and into applications.

Reiteration

The effort to keep aircraft flying safely and efficiently within the U.S. National Air Space requires the complex interplay of an incredible number of systems. Weather is just one of the factors that must be dealt with, but it is an unrelenting factor. Day after day the weather is present, continually changing and challenging. The fact that yesterday was all clear skies and gentle winds does not mean that today won't be storms and turbulence.

In order to ensure that the conduct of aviation in the U.S. remains safe and efficient, the nation must continue to invest resources and effort in the existing and evolving infrastructure that is the National Aviation Weather System. The individuals and organizations engaged in the business of flying must have access to the most accurate, timely, and reliable weather information available. They must be fully aware of the importance of this information and understand how to use it in their operations. This can only happen if the agencies involved in aviation continually work in concert to maintain and improve their coordinated efforts, checking to make sure that they are meeting the needs of their aviation users, learning from mistakes, capitalizing on successes, encouraging new technologies, anticipating new trends.

Pilots must remain constantly vigilant for changes in the weather in order to both take advantage of it and avoid its perils; so also must the nation remain vigilant if aviation is to remain a reliable and safe element of our daily life. Today's highly successful Aviation Weather System can only continue to be successful if it evolves to meet growing needs with better understanding of the operating environment and how to manage traffic flow within it.

Chapter 2: Relevance to the Nation
Chapter 4: Agency Roles and Missions
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