The Long Term Impact of Adolescent Risky Behaviors and Family Environment

Submitted by:
Michael R. Pergamit, Ph.D. Lynn Huang, Ph.D. Julie Lane, Ph.D.
National Opinion Research Center (NORC)
University of Chicago

Submitted to:
Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

August 2001

This report is available on the Internet at:
http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/riskybehav01

To obtain a printed copy of this report

Contents

• Executive Summary
• Acknowledgements

Chapters:

1. Statement of the Problem
2. Literature Review
   1. Predicting Adolescent Risky Behaviors
   2. Adolescent Consequences of Risky Behaviors
   3. Adult Consequences of Adolescent Risky Behaviors
   4. Family Structure
   5. Socioeconomic Status
   6. Parental Alcoholism
3. Data and Methods
   1. Data
   2. Methods
      1. Variable Creation
         1. Adult Outcomes
         2. Adolescent Risky Behaviors
         3. Family Environment
      2. Estimation
4. The Relationship Between Adolescent Risky Behaviors and Family Environment
5. The Relationship of Adolescent Risky Behaviors and Family Environment to Adult Outcomes
   1. Distributions
   2. Regression Analysis
      1. Introduction
      2. The Relationship of Adolescent Risky Behaviors to Adult Outcomes
      3. The Relationship of Adolescent Family Structure to Adult Outcomes
      4. The Relationship of Parents' Education (SES) to Adult Outcomes
      5. The Relationship of Parental Alcohol Problems to Adult Outcomes
6. Exploring Pathways of Early Initiators
   1. Introduction
   2. Does Adolescent Family Structure Affect the Pathways of Early Initiators?
   3. Does Parents' Education Affect the Pathways of Early Initiators?
7. Discussion and Future Directions

Appendices

1. Appendix A: Variables and Estimation Methods
2. Appendix B: Regressions of Adult Outcomes on Adolescent Risky Behaviors, Family Environment, and Other Independent Variables
3. Appendix C :New Categories of Risky Behavior Variables for Regressions of Different Adult Outcomes Among Early Initiators
4. Appendix D: Regressions of Adult Outcomes on Adolescent Risky Behaviors and Other Independent Variables Among Early Initiators: Effects of Family Structure
5. Appendix E: Regressions Of Adult Outcomes On Adolescent Risky Behaviors And Other Independent Variables Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14
6. Appendix F: Regressions Of Adult Outcomes On Adolescent Risky Behaviors And Other Independent Variables Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14

References

List of Tables

• Sample Sizes by Sex and Race/Ethnicity
• Weighted Percent of Adolescent Risky Behaviors by Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Educational Attainment
• Weighted Percent of Adolescent Risky Behaviors by Type of Family Structure at Age 14
• Weighted Percent of Adolescent Risky Behaviors by Parental Educational Attainment
• Weighted Percent of Adolescent Risky Behaviors by Parental Alcoholism
• Weighted Percent/Means of Adult Outcomes by Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Educational Attainment
• Adult Outcomes by Adolescent Risky Behaviors

List of Figures

• 1 Odds Ratios for Age of Alcohol Initiation as it Relates to Alcohol Abuse or Dependence
• 2 Odds Ratios for Age of Marijuana Initiation as it Relates to Past Month Drug Use at Age 30
• 3 Odds Ratios for Age of Marijuana Initiation as it Relates to Ever Being in Poverty Between Ages 25-29
• 4 Predicted Probabilities of Marriage-Fertility Outcomes at Age 33 as they Relate to Age of Sex Initiation
• 5 Odds Ratios for Number of Delinquent Acts as it Relates to Ever Being on Welfare Between Ages 21-33
• 6 Odds Ratios Relating Family Structure to Ever Being in Poverty between Ages 25-29
• 7a Odds Ratios for Alcohol Abuse or Dependence as it Relates to Mothers' Education
• 7b Odds Ratios for Alcohol Abuse or Dependence as it Relates to Fathers' Education
• 8 Odds Ratios of Ever Being in Poverty Between Ages 25-29 as it Relates to Mothers' Education

List of Appendix Tables

• A1 Means and Sample Sizes of Variables Used in the Analysis
• B1. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Adult Health and Crime Outcomes
• B2. Estimates from Regressions of Adult Economic Outcomes
• B3. Relative Risk Ratios from Multinomial Logistic Regression of Adult Marital and Fertility Status at Age 33
  • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility Outcomes at Age 33 by Age of Alcohol Initiation
  • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility Outcomes at Age 33 by Age of Marijuana Initiation
  • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility Outcomes at Age 33 by Age of Cocaine Initiation
  • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility Outcomes at Age 33 by Age of Sex Initiation
  • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility Outcomes at Age 33 by Number of Crimes/delinquencies in 1980
  • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility Outcomes at Age 33 by Family Structure
  • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility and Outcomes at Age 33 by Mother's Educational Attainment
  • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility Outcomes at Age 33 by Father's Educational Attainment
• C1 Definitions of Early Initiators for each Outcome/Behavior Pairing
• Appendix D
  • Summary Table
    • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility Outcomes from Multi-logistic Regressions Among Early Sex Initiators, by Family Structure
    • Probabilities of Marital and Fertility Outcomes from Multi-logistic Regressions Among those who Committed 9 or more Crimes/Delinquencies in 1980, by Family Structure
  • D1. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Alcohol Abuse or Dependence Among Early Initiators
  • D2. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Past-month Drug Use Among Early Initiators
  • D3. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Ever Being in Jail Among Early Initiators
  • D4. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Ever Being In Poverty Among Early Initiators
  • D5. Marginal Effects from Negative Binomial Regressions of Years Being in Poverty Among Early Initiators
  • D6. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Ever Being on Welfare Among Early Initiators
  • D7. Marginal Effects from Negative Binomial Regressions of Years Being on Welfare Among Early Initiators
  • D8. Marginal Effects from OLS Regressions of Percent Time Employed Among Early Initiators
  • D9. Marginal Effects from Weibull Regressions of Age when Reached 2 Years of Tenure Among Early Initiators
  • D10. Relative Risk Ratios from Multi-logistic Regression of Adult Marital and Fertility Status at Age 33 Among Early Initiators
• Appendix E
  • Summary Table
    • Probabilities Of Marital and Fertility Outcomes From Multi-Logistic Regressions Among Early Sex Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14 by Parental Educational Attainment
    • Probabilities Of Marital and Fertility Outcomes From Multi-Logistic Regressions Among Those Who Committed 9+ Crimes/Delinquencies In 1980 Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14 by Parental Educational Attainment
  • E1. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Alcohol Abuse or Dependence Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14
  • E2. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Past-month Drug Use Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14
  • E3. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Ever Being in Jail Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14
  • E4. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Ever Being in Poverty Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14
  • E5. Marginal Effects from Negative Binomial Regressions of Years Being in Poverty Among Early Initiators and Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14
  • E6. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Ever Being on Welfare Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14
  • E7. Marginal Effects from Negative Binomial Regressions of Years Being on Welfare Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14
  • E8. Marginal effects from OLS Regressions of Percent Time Employed Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological parents At Age 14
  • E9. Marginal Effects from Weibull Regressions of Age when Reached 2 Years of Tenure Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age 14
  • E10. Relative Risk Ratios from Multinomial logistic Regression of Adult Marital and Fertility Status at age 33 Among Early Initiators Living With Both Biological Parents At Age  14
• Appendix F
  • Summary Table
    • Probabilities Of Marital and Fertility Outcomes From Multi-Logistic Regressions Among Early Sex Initiators Living With Single Mothers at Age 14 by Mother's Educational Attainment
    • Probabilities Of Marital and Fertility Outcomes From Multi-Logistic Regressions Among Those Who Committed 9+ Crimes/Delinquencies in 1980 Living With Single Mothers At Age 14 by Mother's Educational Attainment
  • F1. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Alcohol Abuse or Dependence Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14
  • F2. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Past-Month Drug Use Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14
  • F3. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Ever Being in Jail Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14
  • F4. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Ever Being In Poverty Ages 25-29 Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14
  • F5. Marginal Effects from Negative Binomial Regressions of Years Being in Poverty Ages 25-29 Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14
  • F6. Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions of Ever Being on Welfare ages 21-33 Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14
  • F7. Marginal Effects from Negative Binomial Regressions of Years Being on Welfare Ages 21-33 Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14
  • F8. Marginal Effects from OLS Regressions of Percent Time Employed Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14
  • F9. Marginal Effects from Weibull Regressions of Age when Reached 2 Years of Tenure Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14
  • F10. Relative Risk Ratios from Multinomial Logistic Regression of Adult Marital and Fertility Status at Age 33 Among Early Initiators Living With Single Mothers At Age 14

Acknowledgements

This report was prepared for the U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation under Contract # HHS-100-99-0007. Other contributors to the report include S. Courtney Bickert and Alice Lapray. We gratefully acknowledge the thoughtful guidance of ASPE staff Kelleen Kaye, Sonia Chessen, and Meredith Kelsey as well as former ASPE Division Director Matthew Stagner. We also thank Michele Zimowski for helpful comments on an earlier draft. All opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Department of Health and Human Services or its staff.

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