VetPop2000 is the official VA estimate and projection of the number and characteristics of veterans as of September 30, 2000.  It is the first revision of official estimates and projections since 1993.  The database herein replaces 60 volumes of hardcopy output and provides straightforward data retrieval procedures and great flexibility. Along with this powerful data set are accompanying documents, which will assist you in using and understanding the data. 

FIRST THINGS 

1.      VetPop2000 uses data from the 1990 Census (and other sources)--NOT the 2000 Census.  It will take a few years for veteran data from the 2000 Census to become available and be integrated into projections and estimates. 

2.      The basic unit of analysis is not the individual veteran but a group of veterans  (called a cell) who are the same age and have other characteristics in common, such as the war or wars in which they served. 

3.      Since the estimates use probabilities of survival, migration, and other events, there are a fractional number of veterans in every cell. 

4.      The credibility of the data in VetPop2000 improves when a number of cells are aggregated together and the results rounded to the nearest 100 or 1,000.  The reason for providing data in small cells is to make sure that the aggregate data are consistent, no matter how they are aggregated. 

5.      VetPop2000 output contains estimates of historical data; actual historical data are not available. 

6.      It is assumed only for the purpose of the projection that the Gulf War will be officially closed on September 30, 2002. 

7.      Each data table contains titles and footnotes (notes), which apply to the data in that table.  The notes are necessarily brief and may appear opaque or trivial.  Nevertheless understanding the notes is important for a full understanding of the data.  A number of accompanying documents will help you understand the notes and other fine points of VetPop2000. 

8.      We would appreciate your feedback, both positive and negative: What do you like about VetPop2000?  How can it be improved?  Please email your comments to VetPop.2000@mail.va.com.

WHERE TO GO NEXT 

The contents are organized into three general areas:

Basic             contains the data tables;

Help                contains a user guide and a tutorial; and

Advanced      contains essays to help you understand the data. 

Each of these areas is described in more detail as follows: 

BASIC (DATA) 

VetPop2000 Version 2.07

The VetPop2000 estimates and projections are presented here using  PivotTables organized into 23 reports----7 reports each for estimates and projections the number of living veterans, new deaths to veterans, and  separations from the military; and 2 reports of net migration.  To access the data, go to the beginning of this "Read Me" document.  In the left margin under "Welcome VetPop2000" are links to the data-click living veterans, deaths, separations, or migrations (whichever is of interest to you).  That will bring you to the reports matrix.  Click on the appropriate shaded button to get the report(s) you want.  After the appropriate Excel PivotTable appears on the screen, it may be necessary to add appropriate excel Toolbars by selecting-View, Toolbars (and your selections, e.g., Standard, PivotTable).

You should also know that these data:

1.  do not reflect Census 2000; veteran data from Census2000 will not be available for about a year and details about two years, and

2.  are only broken down by state.  County data are available on this site: www.va.gov/vetdata/GeographicInformation/GDX-FY2000-3.xls

[Users who want to compare VetPop2000 estimated and projections of the number of veterans to estimates and projections of the number of total civilians by age, sex and state will find tables in the estimates and projections and Census 2000 sections of the Census Bureau's web site very useful-www.census.gov].  

HELP 

User Guide

The User Guide provides a brief description of the location and names of the Excel files used to generate the preprogrammed reports that make up VetPop2000.  It also explains how to use the special commands available within the standard PivotTable function.  The steps needed to group columns or rows are given for both Excel97 and Excel2000 users. 

Tutorial

The tutorial explains how the VetPop2000 reports are organized, and how to access them within Excel.  Using four case studies, the tutorial provides illustrations of how specific research questions can be addressed using Excel’s PivotTable capability to create customized reports from the basic set of 23 pre-programmed VetPop2000 reports.

ADVANCED 

A Brief Description

This paper serves as a general introduction to the methodology of the VetPop2000 model, providing a description of: the background of the model, the basic design and logic of the model, data sources, assumptions embedded in the model, and some highlights of what the data from the model show.  A supplemental table is provided in an Appendix comparing estimates of the veteran population by state from the previous model with those from VetPop2000 as exhibited in the FY1999 and FY2000 Annual Accountability Reports.

Period of Service

This paper provides the user with a guide to period of service (POS) as it is coded in VetPop2000.  POS is a major characteristic of veterans in VetPop2000, along with age, sex, and state of residence.  The paper provides the detailed, mutually exclusive, and exhaustive categories comprising the POS variable, including categories indicating multiple periods of service.  In addition, the paper provides a discussion of the importance of POS and some of the nuances in coding POS in administrative records for veterans receiving VA benefits and services.

L2s

L2s are veterans discharged after September 1980 with less than two years of military service.  In the past, L2s were not included in the official estimate and projection of the veteran population.  This paper provides a detailed discussion of why L2’s are included in VetPop2000. 

Technical Notes

Learn three different ways to count the number of veterans this year and how to work with age nearest birthday or age last birthday. 

Supplemental Tables

The Supplemental Tables provide concise, summary information from VetPop2000 and other sources, including tables showing estimated and projected changes over time in the components of the veteran population, veteran deaths and military separations, as well as estimates of the current veteran population by state.

Reconciliation Spreadsheet

The Reconciliation Spreadsheet reconciles official veteran counts published in Annual Accountability Reports of VA from 1990 to 1999 to veteran counts for the same period determined using VetPop2000.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

VetPop2000 is the product of the creativity, hard work, and support of many people.  Particular mention must be made of the following individuals:

·        Dennis Duffy, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy and Planning, and

·        Patricia O’Neil, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy, for recognizing the critical need to improve VA’s estimates and projections of the veteran population and for insuring funding and support within VA for VetPop2000;

·        Ken Scheflen,

·        Felicia Johnson, and

·        Zee Ferris of DOD’s Defense Manpower Data Center, and

·        Chris Doyle,

·        Joel Sitrin, and

·        the staff of DOD’s Office of the Actuary for their cooperation in making essential DOD administrative data available to VA for VetPop2000;

·        Allen Berkowitz,

·        George Sheldon,

·        Peter Ahn,

·        Robert Klein, and

·        Ruby McCrae -- members of VA’s Office of the Actuary—--for their technical talents, general support, and dedication to this project, moreover--Allen wrote the Tutorial and User Guide; George created the Supplemental Tables; Peter created the State PivotTables; Rob wrote the Period of Service paper and provided substantial editorial guidance;

·        Surinder Gujral of OP&P for his valuable advice from the beginning;

·        Randy Remmel of VHA’s Office of Policy for lending his considerable programming and database management skills to VetPop2000;

·        Calvin Beads for putting the data and supporting documents on the web site;

·        Many other VA employees from VHA, VBA, NCA, and the Office of Policy and Planning for providing insight into the real world that we are modeling;

·        Ed Hustead, Craig Graby, Nancy Myers, and others of the HayGroup, Inc; and Jon Jacobsen, Mark Brinkley, Chris Rankin, Mary Grider, and others of Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. for helping design and implement VetPop2000 under contract to VA.

For more information contact: VetPop2000, Office of the Actuary (008A2), Department of Veterans Affairs, 810 Vermont Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20420; or 202-273-5081; or by E-mail: mailto:VetPop.2000@mail.va.gov. 

Stephen A. Meskin, Chief Actuary

Office of Policy and Planning

April 26, 2001

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