Collaboration
Collaboration among National Centers and WFOs to ensure consistent forecasts is critical. Collaboration is carried out at three levels--among NCEP and WFOs, between adjacent WFOs, and a final quality control check at the NDFD central server and at NCEP.
NCEP-WFO Collaboration--The role that NCEP's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) plays in the production of guidance for WFOs is changing dramatically with the introduction of the NDFD. Rather than distributing general guidance in graphical and textual form to WFOs as in the traditional process (See Fig. 3), HPC provides digital guidance more specific in space and time. Forecasters at HPC, as usual, judge the strengths and weaknesses of output from NCEP's numerical models as well as model output from other countries. In addition, in this new paradigm, HPC critically analyzes the NDFD to see what areas or forecast projection may need updating. HPC initiates collaboration with WFOs in the affected areas, and together they judge the evolution of meteorological events (see Fig. 4). In this process, HPC issues digital guidance targeted for the affected areas. Collaboration can also be initiated by any of the WFOs.
Fig. 3. Traditional Forecasting Process |
Fig. 4. New Forecasting Process |
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WFO-WFO Collaboration--Once the NCEP-WFO collaboration is underway or complete, the WFOs produce their grids via IFPS. Subsets of these grids are sent to the neighboring WFOs; software allows simultaneous viewing of grids from both WFOs, and with interactive software a WFO can interact directly with graphics from its neighbor's grids to minimize boundary problems. Thus, after NCEP-WFO collaboration sets the stage, the WFOs refine and tailor to terrain, etc.
Central Quality Control--When the forecast grids from the WFOs arrive at the NDFD central server, they are automatically checked by software for consistency at the boundaries. If a discontinuity greater than agreed upon thresholds is detected, the submitting WFOs are automatically notified of a potential problem. The WFOs have the opportunity to modify their submissions to make them more compatible with their surroundings. NCEP will also have the opportunity to view the mosaic and offer suggestions to the WFOs. As a last resort, a consensus forecast may be calculated at WFO boundaries.
This three-pronged collaboration toward producing a "consistent" mosaic should, with practice, perseverance, and dedication yield the desired results. The collaboration among NCEP and the WFOs, and the increased emphasis on consistency, should also produce more accurate forecasts.
