Tuesday, 7 September 2004

DR macroeconomic numbers improve
Central Bank governor Hector Valdez Albizu announced that inflation by the end of 2004 is supposed to be below the 36% level, about 9% less than the levels predicted by the IMF in its monetary program. The Consumer Price Index fell by 1.13% last September, the first time this has happened in the last twelve years. Valdez Albizu offered his statements during a speech at the San Pablo House where the Catholic organization was celebrating the 57th anniversary of its founding. Valdez Albizu said that between January and September, the GDP rose by 1.4% due to greater spending before and after the May elections, as well as some recovery in industrial production and the service sector. The Central Bank chief said that if the recovery continues, the GDP could grow by as much as 1.8% for the year, far above the -1.0% predicted by the IMF and the Central Bank back in the earlier part of 2004. Expressed in dollars, the GDP per person is at US$2,019.70, which is a 5.7% growth over 2003. September saw a US$1.26 billion surplus in the balance of payments that Valdez Albizu feels could be maintained until the end of 2004.
Commenting on the just released figures, Bear Stearns research analyst Franco Uccelli forecasts that for the year as a whole the current account surplus will likely be around US$1.5 billion, equivalent to 8.3% of the GDP. "As the Dominican Republic's real economy ad monetary accounts continue to recover, government and market attention will remain focused on the country's fiscal and public debt situation, with the government vehemently working to bring a consolidated deficit (which we believe will be equivalent to some 6.8% of GDP in 2004) under control and to reduce the country's hefty public debt service burden (which at the moment consumes about 40% of fiscal revenues) by restructuring some of its components, including its sovereign bonds." Source: http://www.dr1.com